Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Paraná beat Guaratinguetá with a 22.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 9 (before the first match) against those on October 12 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 61.2% | 76.8% | +15.6 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 60.0% | 74.8% | +14.8 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 19.4% | 6.3% | −13.1 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 21.8% | 34.2% | +12.4 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 54.5% | 64.7% | +10.3 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 30.2% | 39.4% | +9.1 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 15.3% | 7.3% | −8.0 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 14.0% | 6.1% | −7.9 |
| América-MG | Champion | 13.5% | 6.8% | −6.7 |
| Sport | Promotion | 24.3% | 17.7% | −6.6 |
