Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ponte Preta beat América-MG with a 23.9% chance, Vila Nova beat São Caetano with a 14.9% chance, Duque de Caxias beat ASA with a 21.0% chance, and Sport beat Portuguesa with a 20.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 31 (before the first match) against those on September 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 55.0% | 72.0% | +17.0 |
| ASA | Relegation | 18.0% | 29.9% | +11.8 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 37.8% | 26.2% | −11.6 |
| Duque de Caxias | Relegation | 22.1% | 10.8% | −11.3 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 31.7% | 20.9% | −10.8 |
| Ponte Preta | Champion | 13.6% | 24.4% | +10.8 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 24.5% | 14.3% | −10.2 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 85.2% | 75.3% | −9.8 |
| Ipatinga | Relegation | 74.4% | 82.5% | +8.0 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 30.1% | 37.7% | +7.6 |
