Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Guarani beat Red Bull Bragantino with a 22.2% chance and Portuguesa beat Bahia with a 23.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 5 (before the first match) against those on September 12 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarani | Promotion | 55.2% | 71.8% | +16.6 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 17.4% | 29.5% | +12.1 |
| Juventude | Relegation | 38.2% | 27.4% | −10.9 |
| Campinense | Relegation | 80.1% | 69.6% | −10.5 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 31.5% | 21.6% | −9.9 |
| Atlético-GO | Promotion | 75.9% | 66.0% | −9.9 |
| Ceará | Promotion | 67.4% | 57.8% | −9.6 |
| Atlético-GO | Champion | 21.4% | 13.3% | −8.1 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 13.7% | 5.9% | −7.8 |
| Vasco | Champion | 43.8% | 51.3% | +7.5 |
