Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Grêmio Barueri beat Vila Nova with a 23.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 9 (before the first match) against those on November 13 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 34.3% | 74.9% | +40.6 |
| Vila Nova | Promotion | 42.3% | 10.1% | −32.1 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 73.4% | 55.5% | −17.9 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 31.5% | 44.8% | +13.2 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 10.6% | 0.8% | −9.8 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 17.9% | 8.6% | −9.2 |
| Santo André | Promotion | 89.2% | 97.5% | +8.3 |
| Juventude | Promotion | 9.5% | 1.5% | −8.0 |
| Gama | Relegation | 92.1% | 98.4% | +6.4 |
| Marília | Relegation | 18.3% | 24.5% | +6.2 |
