Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Red Bull Bragantino beat Fortaleza with a 20.8% chance, São Caetano beat Juventude with a 22.1% chance, and ABC beat Ponte Preta with a 20.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 9 (before the first match) against those on August 13 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná | Relegation | 41.0% | 55.4% | +14.3 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 18.8% | 31.3% | +12.5 |
| Juventude | Promotion | 41.2% | 29.2% | −12.1 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 39.9% | 28.7% | −11.2 |
| Vila Nova | Promotion | 31.5% | 42.4% | +10.9 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 10.3% | 20.4% | +10.1 |
| ABC | Relegation | 24.9% | 15.6% | −9.3 |
| Santo André | Promotion | 27.5% | 36.7% | +9.2 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 21.6% | 13.0% | −8.6 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 75.8% | 83.7% | +7.9 |
