Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 1 draw and 5 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: ABC beat São Caetano with a 21.4% chance, Criciúma beat Red Bull Bragantino with a 22.9% chance, Bahia beat Corinthians with a 14.9% chance, and Ponte Preta beat Fortaleza with a 22.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 12 (before the first match) against those on July 19 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | Champion | 62.9% | 46.5% | −16.4 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 38.7% | 23.2% | −15.5 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 48.2% | 34.1% | −14.1 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 24.5% | 35.8% | +11.4 |
| CRB | Relegation | 56.2% | 66.8% | +10.6 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 24.1% | 13.6% | −10.5 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 18.9% | 8.8% | −10.1 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 15.4% | 25.3% | +10.0 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 29.3% | 39.1% | +9.8 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 24.3% | 14.7% | −9.6 |
