Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Avaí beat São Caetano with a 19.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 16 (before the first match) against those on July 21 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | Promotion | 32.8% | 47.4% | +14.6 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 30.1% | 19.5% | −10.6 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 33.1% | 42.9% | +9.7 |
| Ituano | Relegation | 61.5% | 71.1% | +9.6 |
| Paulista | Relegation | 59.5% | 50.3% | −9.1 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 74.2% | 83.0% | +8.8 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 29.8% | 21.6% | −8.2 |
| Brasiliense | Promotion | 23.7% | 31.6% | +7.8 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 18.9% | 11.3% | −7.6 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 19.8% | 27.3% | +7.5 |
