Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Marília beat Paulista with a 24.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on June 30 (before the first match) against those on July 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipatinga | Relegation | 43.9% | 28.4% | −15.5 |
| Marília | Promotion | 30.7% | 44.5% | +13.8 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 33.1% | 20.5% | −12.6 |
| Paulista | Relegation | 27.0% | 39.4% | +12.3 |
| Ituano | Relegation | 59.5% | 70.5% | +11.0 |
| Gama | Promotion | 30.1% | 19.2% | −10.9 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 60.1% | 70.5% | +10.3 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 28.3% | 37.0% | +8.7 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 31.3% | 22.8% | −8.5 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 25.0% | 32.2% | +7.2 |
