Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Brasiliense beat Coritiba with a 21.5% chance and Ituano beat Marília with a 20.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 8 (before the first match) against those on September 12 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ituano | Relegation | 44.7% | 29.7% | −15.0 |
| Náutico | Champion | 23.6% | 37.9% | +14.3 |
| Atletico-MG | Promotion | 45.9% | 59.8% | +14.0 |
| Portuguesa | Relegation | 54.9% | 68.2% | +13.3 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 67.7% | 80.4% | +12.8 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 29.5% | 17.1% | −12.4 |
| Coritiba | Promotion | 72.3% | 60.2% | −12.1 |
| Brasiliense | Promotion | 9.0% | 19.3% | +10.2 |
| Marília | Promotion | 31.5% | 21.6% | −9.9 |
| São Raimundo-AM | Relegation | 39.8% | 49.0% | +9.1 |
