Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
9 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Santos beat São Paulo with a 18.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 26 (before the first match) against those on October 3, with the matchday still in progress. Only changes of 3 percentage points or more.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | Sudamericana | 13.5% | 78.8% | +65.2 |
| Santos | Relegation | 42.1% | 0.1% | −42.0 |
| Corinthians | Sudamericana | 52.5% | 16.4% | −36.1 |
| Remo | Relegation | 60.2% | 96.0% | +35.9 |
| Flamengo | Champion | 33.7% | 68.6% | +34.9 |
| Palmeiras | Champion | 60.8% | 30.7% | −30.0 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 50.2% | 22.4% | −27.8 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Libertadores | 23.1% | 0.7% | −22.4 |
| Cruzeiro | Libertadores | 5.2% | 27.2% | +22.0 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 20.9% | 0.2% | −20.7 |
Home 35.5%
Draw 31.5%
Away 33.0%
Vasco · Sudamericana: 67.7% with a win, 27.2% with a loss