Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, no draws and 5 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Santos beat Botafogo with a 21.2% chance, São Paulo beat Vasco with a 22.4% chance, and Coritiba beat Palmeiras with a 24.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 6 (before the first match) against those on October 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco | Libertadores Second Round | 61.0% | 39.6% | −21.5 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores Second Round | 30.1% | 50.4% | +20.3 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 29.7% | 47.7% | +18.1 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 62.5% | 45.6% | −16.9 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores Second Round | 35.4% | 50.0% | +14.7 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores Second Round | 61.0% | 47.6% | −13.4 |
| Palmeiras | Relegation | 75.6% | 88.3% | +12.7 |
| Coritiba | Relegation | 14.9% | 3.8% | −11.1 |
| Sport | Relegation | 82.4% | 91.8% | +9.4 |
| Fluminense | Champion | 84.2% | 91.7% | +7.5 |
