Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Atletico-MG beat Fluminense with a 18.9% chance and Figueirense beat Palmeiras with a 22.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 19 (before the first match) against those on October 23 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 58.1% | 36.4% | −21.6 |
| Vasco | Champion | 27.9% | 49.2% | +21.2 |
| Vasco | Libertadores | 71.3% | 91.4% | +20.2 |
| Ceará | Relegation | 34.3% | 52.9% | +18.6 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 35.9% | 21.2% | −14.7 |
| Vasco | Libertadores Second Round | 21.3% | 7.5% | −13.8 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 7.3% | 19.7% | +12.4 |
| Palmeiras | Sudamericana | 23.1% | 10.8% | −12.3 |
| Fluminense | Sudamericana | 28.3% | 40.1% | +11.8 |
| Figueirense | Sudamericana | 48.9% | 59.6% | +10.7 |
