Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 4 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Flamengo beat São Paulo with a 21.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 25 (before the first match) against those on October 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 54.3% | 42.0% | −12.2 |
| Flamengo | Libertadores | 8.2% | 19.9% | +11.6 |
| Athletico-PR | Relegation | 73.9% | 63.5% | −10.4 |
| Atlético-GO | Sudamericana | 24.8% | 33.9% | +9.1 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 15.4% | 24.4% | +9.0 |
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 15.7% | 24.6% | +8.9 |
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 66.5% | 75.4% | +8.8 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 24.1% | 15.7% | −8.4 |
| Flamengo | Libertadores Second Round | 19.7% | 28.0% | +8.2 |
| Flamengo | Sudamericana | 48.3% | 40.6% | −7.7 |
