Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 6 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Atletico-MG beat Coritiba with a 21.7% chance, Fluminense beat Flamengo with a 20.8% chance, Ponte Preta beat Paraná with a 19.5% chance, and Palmeiras beat Santos with a 17.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 16 (before the first match) against those on May 23 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio | Relegation | 25.7% | 15.5% | −10.3 |
| Palmeiras | Relegation | 20.4% | 10.1% | −10.3 |
| Corinthians | Relegation | 24.7% | 34.3% | +9.6 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 23.2% | 32.2% | +9.0 |
| Paysandu | Relegation | 68.8% | 77.5% | +8.7 |
| Athletico-PR | Libertadores | 12.4% | 20.8% | +8.3 |
| Paraná | Libertadores | 20.3% | 12.4% | −7.8 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 56.8% | 49.0% | −7.8 |
| Juventude | Relegation | 23.0% | 15.3% | −7.7 |
| Vitória | Libertadores | 22.2% | 14.7% | −7.5 |
