Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 6 home wins, 5 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: São Paulo beat Coritiba with a 24.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 2 (before the first match) against those on May 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | Relegation | 28.8% | 16.8% | −12.0 |
| Cruzeiro | Libertadores | 48.0% | 37.5% | −10.5 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 51.0% | 61.1% | +10.1 |
| São Caetano | Libertadores | 33.9% | 43.3% | +9.3 |
| Vitória | Libertadores | 18.1% | 26.5% | +8.4 |
| Coritiba | Libertadores | 25.4% | 18.1% | −7.3 |
| São Paulo | Champion | 18.6% | 25.5% | +6.9 |
| Palmeiras | Sudamericana | 11.1% | 17.9% | +6.8 |
| Ponte Preta | Libertadores | 18.9% | 12.1% | −6.8 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 10.1% | 16.5% | +6.4 |
