Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ponte Preta beat Atletico-MG with a 18.1% chance, Palmeiras beat Corinthians with a 18.7% chance, and Cruzeiro beat Santos with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 29 (before the first match) against those on May 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | Relegation | 47.0% | 28.8% | −18.2 |
| Juventude | Relegation | 30.8% | 17.8% | −13.0 |
| Cruzeiro | Libertadores | 35.3% | 48.0% | +12.7 |
| Corinthians | Relegation | 21.8% | 34.1% | +12.3 |
| Figueirense | Libertadores | 42.6% | 31.4% | −11.2 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 27.9% | 16.9% | −10.9 |
| Grêmio | Relegation | 15.6% | 24.8% | +9.1 |
| Fluminense | Relegation | 31.5% | 23.2% | −8.3 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 42.9% | 51.0% | +8.1 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 19.3% | 27.3% | +8.0 |
