Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 5 home wins, 5 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Palmeiras beat Flamengo with a 23.9% chance and Botafogo beat Guarani with a 20.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 29 (before the first match) against those on August 1 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | Relegation | 70.8% | 55.9% | −14.9 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 30.6% | 43.6% | +13.0 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 42.6% | 53.5% | +10.9 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 51.7% | 61.8% | +10.2 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 25.0% | 33.2% | +8.3 |
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 24.9% | 16.8% | −8.2 |
| Figueirense | Libertadores | 39.8% | 32.0% | −7.8 |
| Corinthians | Relegation | 21.3% | 13.7% | −7.6 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 68.2% | 75.8% | +7.6 |
| São Caetano | Libertadores | 28.9% | 21.6% | −7.3 |
