Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Brighton & Hove Albion beat Tottenham with a 23.5% chance, Crystal Palace beat West Ham with a 21.6% chance, Wolverhampton beat Manchester City with a 10.9% chance, and Newcastle beat Manchester United with a 23.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 30 (before the first match) against those on October 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | Champions League | 42.0% | 57.1% | +15.1 |
| Norwich City | Relegation | 55.5% | 68.4% | +12.9 |
| Aston Villa | Relegation | 45.6% | 33.0% | −12.6 |
| Tottenham | Champions League | 39.2% | 27.2% | −12.1 |
| Manchester City | Champion | 22.5% | 12.0% | −10.5 |
| Manchester City | Champions League | 83.6% | 73.7% | −10.0 |
| Liverpool | Champion | 64.0% | 73.7% | +9.8 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Relegation | 21.4% | 12.0% | −9.4 |
| Southampton | Relegation | 17.6% | 26.5% | +8.9 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 36.3% | 44.5% | +8.2 |
