Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 2 draws and 5 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Middlesbrough beat Wigan Athletic with a 23.0% chance, Bolton Wanderers beat West Ham with a 12.9% chance, and Hull City beat Tottenham with a 19.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 28 (before the first match) against those on October 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers | Relegation | 43.0% | 28.6% | −14.4 |
| Manchester United | Champions League | 54.0% | 67.1% | +13.1 |
| Aston Villa | Champions League | 42.7% | 32.9% | −9.8 |
| West Ham | Champions League | 23.0% | 13.6% | −9.4 |
| Tottenham | Relegation | 26.1% | 35.5% | +9.4 |
| Liverpool | Champions League | 62.0% | 70.8% | +8.8 |
| Fulham | Relegation | 28.6% | 36.0% | +7.4 |
| Chelsea | Champions League | 75.7% | 82.9% | +7.2 |
| Middlesbrough | Relegation | 22.3% | 15.5% | −6.8 |
| Hull City | Relegation | 24.5% | 17.8% | −6.7 |
