Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Aston Villa beat Blackburn Rovers with a 17.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 14 (before the first match) against those on March 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Champion | 41.1% | 93.9% | +52.8 |
| Manchester United | Champion | 38.6% | 3.2% | −35.4 |
| Leicester City | Relegation | 34.1% | 68.7% | +34.7 |
| Aston Villa | Relegation | 29.9% | 0.1% | −29.8 |
| Leeds United | Relegation | 52.7% | 80.8% | +28.1 |
| Birmingham City | Europa League | 13.8% | 35.2% | +21.4 |
| Charlton Athletic | Europa League | 18.4% | 36.3% | +18.0 |
| Southampton | Europa League | 23.5% | 5.8% | −17.7 |
| Chelsea | Champion | 19.9% | 3.0% | −16.9 |
| Fulham | Champions League | 17.2% | 1.7% | −15.5 |
