Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 8 home wins, no draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Valencia beat Atlético Madrid with a 21.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 3 (before the first match) against those on September 18 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 58.2% | 42.8% | −15.4 |
| Valencia | Relegation | 21.0% | 10.6% | −10.3 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 24.4% | 33.4% | +9.1 |
| Girona | Champions League | 22.8% | 31.7% | +9.0 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 27.8% | 19.0% | −8.7 |
| Granada | Relegation | 53.2% | 61.9% | +8.7 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 33.0% | 24.5% | −8.5 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 76.1% | 84.3% | +8.2 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 36.5% | 28.9% | −7.6 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 14.1% | 6.5% | −7.5 |
