Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Villarreal beat Real Sociedad with a 16.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 19 (before the first match) against those on April 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | Conference League | 47.6% | 73.9% | +26.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 22.8% | 38.6% | +15.8 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 71.3% | 57.3% | −14.1 |
| Real Betis | Conference League | 21.5% | 7.6% | −13.8 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 87.6% | 99.7% | +12.1 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 10.6% | 0.3% | −10.3 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 88.7% | 97.0% | +8.4 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 21.2% | 13.6% | −7.6 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 41.4% | 48.9% | +7.5 |
| Granada | Relegation | 93.0% | 99.9% | +7.0 |
