Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Sociedad beat Barcelona with a 16.7% chance, Espanyol beat Rayo Vallecano with a 18.4% chance, and Valencia beat Real Madrid with a 24.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 15 (before the first match) against those on May 21 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | Europa League | 53.2% | 77.6% | +24.4 |
| Real Betis | Conference League | 61.6% | 85.1% | +23.5 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 32.3% | 54.1% | +21.8 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 39.8% | 61.4% | +21.6 |
| Villarreal | Conference League | 31.7% | 13.7% | −18.0 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 30.2% | 13.8% | −16.4 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 87.2% | 72.2% | −15.0 |
| Cádiz | Relegation | 21.1% | 7.0% | −14.1 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 81.1% | 91.3% | +10.2 |
| Almería | Relegation | 13.1% | 3.0% | −10.1 |
