Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Espanyol beat Real Madrid with a 23.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 26 (before the first match) against those on March 1 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | Europa League | 47.3% | 55.7% | +8.5 |
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 18.0% | 10.5% | −7.5 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 61.5% | 55.1% | −6.4 |
| Eibar | Europa League | 10.4% | 16.1% | +5.7 |
| Levante | Relegation | 47.7% | 53.0% | +5.3 |
| Las Palmas | Relegation | 71.3% | 66.0% | −5.2 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 15.0% | 10.6% | −4.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 6.0% | 10.0% | +4.0 |
| Girona | Europa League | 9.7% | 13.7% | +3.9 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 13.5% | 9.6% | −3.9 |
