Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 1 draw and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Valencia beat Real Madrid with a 18.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 12 (before the first match) against those on February 22 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 40.6% | 71.9% | +31.2 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 60.1% | 91.1% | +31.1 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 44.5% | 17.7% | −26.7 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 24.9% | 50.7% | +25.8 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 27.5% | 53.2% | +25.7 |
| Valencia | Relegation | 24.1% | 1.4% | −22.7 |
| Leganés | Relegation | 32.8% | 50.4% | +17.7 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 43.0% | 60.0% | +17.0 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 19.3% | 2.4% | −16.9 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 16.6% | 31.4% | +14.9 |
