Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Sporting Gijón beat Espanyol with a 17.1% chance, Real Betis beat Rayo Vallecano with a 20.2% chance, and Levante beat Villarreal with a 23.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 27 (before the first match) against those on October 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | Relegation | 39.7% | 52.5% | +12.8 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 14.5% | 24.1% | +9.7 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 24.9% | 16.1% | −8.8 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 39.6% | 31.1% | −8.5 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 68.1% | 61.0% | −7.1 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 11.3% | 18.2% | +6.9 |
| Levante | Relegation | 34.2% | 27.9% | −6.3 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 22.8% | 17.1% | −5.7 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 21.2% | 16.1% | −5.1 |
| Eibar | Relegation | 11.9% | 6.9% | −5.0 |
