Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Sporting Gijón beat Atlético Madrid with a 15.6% chance, Las Palmas beat Real Sociedad with a 18.9% chance, and Celta Vigo beat Valencia with a 24.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 14 (before the first match) against those on March 20 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 31.1% | 50.3% | +19.2 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 82.2% | 67.3% | −14.9 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 67.2% | 57.5% | −9.7 |
| Levante | Relegation | 67.4% | 76.9% | +9.5 |
| Las Palmas | Relegation | 14.4% | 5.0% | −9.4 |
| Granada | Relegation | 47.9% | 55.9% | +8.0 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 33.7% | 27.3% | −6.3 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 64.2% | 70.4% | +6.2 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 42.8% | 48.7% | +5.9 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 14.1% | 8.2% | −5.9 |
