Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 1 draw and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Osasuna beat Málaga with a 9.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 30 (before the first match) against those on October 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | Relegation | 53.3% | 42.2% | −11.1 |
| Málaga | Champions League | 23.5% | 15.0% | −8.5 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 68.9% | 77.0% | +8.1 |
| Elche | Relegation | 36.2% | 28.7% | −7.5 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 12.0% | 19.1% | +7.1 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 22.1% | 28.6% | +6.5 |
| Granada | Relegation | 14.3% | 20.4% | +6.2 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 25.9% | 20.7% | −5.2 |
| Getafe | Champions League | 11.2% | 16.2% | +5.0 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 14.0% | 18.8% | +4.8 |
