Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 2 draws and 5 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Elche beat Celta Vigo with a 21.4% chance and Getafe beat Espanyol with a 22.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 26 (before the first match) against those on September 30 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | Relegation | 47.1% | 36.2% | −10.9 |
| Almería | Relegation | 55.2% | 64.5% | +9.3 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 18.2% | 9.8% | −8.3 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 25.4% | 32.9% | +7.5 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 20.0% | 26.8% | +6.8 |
| Granada | Relegation | 21.0% | 14.3% | −6.7 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 18.5% | 12.0% | −6.6 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 75.4% | 68.9% | −6.5 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 16.0% | 9.7% | −6.3 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 47.1% | 53.3% | +6.2 |
