Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 4 draws and 1 away win. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Celta Vigo beat Real Madrid with a 22.1% chance and Almería beat Granada with a 20.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 7 (before the first match) against those on May 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almería | Relegation | 54.0% | <0.1% | −54.0 |
| Granada | Relegation | 10.0% | 53.7% | +43.7 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 25.2% | 62.3% | +37.0 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 49.2% | 18.4% | −30.8 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 36.5% | 52.6% | +16.1 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 8.9% | 21.2% | +12.3 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 91.1% | 78.8% | −12.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 59.6% | 47.4% | −12.2 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 58.3% | 65.7% | +7.4 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 3.9% | 0% | −3.9 |
