Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Celta Vigo beat Levante with a 20.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 10 (before the first match) against those on March 17 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 27.4% | 15.1% | −12.4 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 47.3% | 57.6% | +10.3 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 14.1% | 4.8% | −9.3 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 45.3% | 38.0% | −7.3 |
| Almería | Relegation | 49.2% | 56.5% | +7.2 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 26.6% | 33.5% | +6.9 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 18.2% | 24.6% | +6.3 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 70.4% | 64.1% | −6.3 |
| Levante | Europa League | 7.3% | 2.6% | −4.7 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 28.4% | 32.8% | +4.4 |
