Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Celta Vigo beat Granada with a 23.5% chance and Valencia beat Barcelona with a 10.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 27 (before the first match) against those on February 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 31.6% | 48.0% | +16.4 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 44.3% | 28.6% | −15.7 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 23.7% | 14.3% | −9.4 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 20.2% | 27.9% | +7.7 |
| Almería | Relegation | 32.9% | 40.1% | +7.2 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 81.2% | 75.0% | −6.3 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 32.7% | 26.9% | −5.8 |
| Granada | Relegation | 8.5% | 14.4% | +5.8 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 13.8% | 19.5% | +5.6 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 5.0% | 10.5% | +5.5 |
