Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Osasuna beat Getafe with a 22.1% chance and Mallorca beat Valencia with a 24.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 23 (before the first match) against those on March 30 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | Champions League | 18.4% | 37.4% | +19.0 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 36.9% | 23.5% | −13.4 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 21.2% | 7.9% | −13.4 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 74.1% | 86.5% | +12.4 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 14.6% | 26.7% | +12.0 |
| Recreativo Huelva | Relegation | 23.6% | 34.5% | +11.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 61.9% | 52.4% | −9.6 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 31.8% | 41.0% | +9.2 |
| Espanyol | Europa League | 36.4% | 27.3% | −9.1 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 9.9% | 3.1% | −6.8 |
