Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Atlético Madrid beat Sevilla with a 24.1% chance, Real Betis beat Osasuna with a 22.8% chance, and Valencia beat Real Madrid with a 15.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 16 (before the first match) against those on March 23 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 40.7% | 61.9% | +21.2 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 33.7% | 13.8% | −20.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 89.3% | 74.1% | −15.3 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 22.0% | 8.4% | −13.6 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 9.1% | 21.2% | +12.1 |
| Racing Santander | Europa League | 40.6% | 51.9% | +11.3 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 20.7% | 9.9% | −10.8 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 42.3% | 31.8% | −10.5 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 45.0% | 52.6% | +7.6 |
| Recreativo Huelva | Relegation | 17.0% | 23.6% | +6.6 |
