Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Athletic Club beat Valencia with a 14.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 25 (before the first match) against those on December 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 39.8% | 55.7% | +15.9 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 34.2% | 49.3% | +15.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 40.7% | 52.6% | +11.8 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 36.1% | 24.9% | −11.2 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Relegation | 23.5% | 34.0% | +10.5 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 25.4% | 14.9% | −10.4 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 33.6% | 23.4% | −10.3 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 72.1% | 64.0% | −8.1 |
| Villarreal | Champion | 20.3% | 12.6% | −7.7 |
| Almería | Relegation | 26.4% | 19.6% | −6.7 |
