Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Betis beat Villarreal with a 11.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 5 (before the first match) against those on December 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | Relegation | 49.4% | 35.1% | −14.3 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 63.9% | 51.1% | −12.8 |
| Real Murcia | Relegation | 33.5% | 41.8% | +8.3 |
| Recreativo Huelva | Relegation | 16.3% | 9.0% | −7.3 |
| Almería | Relegation | 20.3% | 13.4% | −7.0 |
| Villarreal | Champion | 12.1% | 5.2% | −6.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 56.2% | 62.7% | +6.5 |
| Levante | Relegation | 82.4% | 88.8% | +6.4 |
| Racing Santander | Champions League | 17.1% | 23.4% | +6.2 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 52.8% | 59.0% | +6.2 |
