Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 2 draws and 6 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Athletic Club beat Deportivo La Coruña with a 20.4% chance and Racing Santander beat Mallorca with a 22.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 10 (before the first match) against those on January 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | Champions League | 22.3% | 66.3% | +44.0 |
| Real Zaragoza | Champions League | 39.4% | 18.2% | −21.2 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 25.8% | 43.1% | +17.3 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 56.8% | 39.9% | −16.9 |
| Gimnàstic de Tarragona | Relegation | 80.7% | 96.5% | +15.9 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 32.5% | 16.7% | −15.8 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 8.4% | 24.0% | +15.6 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 18.9% | 5.3% | −13.6 |
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 15.1% | 2.3% | −12.8 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 13.5% | 1.8% | −11.7 |
