Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Osasuna beat Deportivo La Coruña with a 17.4% chance, Atlético Madrid beat Málaga with a 21.7% chance, and Deportivo Alavés beat Racing Santander with a 14.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 25 (before the first match) against those on October 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 73.1% | 60.7% | −12.3 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 34.7% | 24.4% | −10.3 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 59.0% | 69.3% | +10.3 |
| Getafe | Champions League | 26.8% | 36.1% | +9.2 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 45.9% | 55.1% | +9.2 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 27.9% | 36.7% | +8.8 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 20.9% | 29.6% | +8.6 |
| Atlético Madrid | Relegation | 17.5% | 9.4% | −8.1 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 37.9% | 30.4% | −7.5 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 22.2% | 29.6% | +7.4 |
