Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 5 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Celta Vigo beat Villarreal with a 11.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 18 (before the first match) against those on September 22 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 36.5% | 50.8% | +14.3 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 29.6% | 21.4% | −8.3 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 28.3% | 20.2% | −8.1 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 15.0% | 22.8% | +7.8 |
| Real Zaragoza | Champions League | 11.2% | 18.7% | +7.5 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 9.2% | 16.7% | +7.5 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 32.3% | 25.2% | −7.1 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 39.8% | 32.7% | −7.1 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 31.5% | 26.0% | −5.5 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 21.6% | 16.2% | −5.4 |
