Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Celta Vigo beat Atlético Madrid with a 20.0% chance and Getafe beat Osasuna with a 22.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 26 (before the first match) against those on April 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | Champions League | 78.0% | 60.7% | −17.3 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 58.8% | 41.7% | −17.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 16.3% | 3.7% | −12.6 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 36.6% | 25.3% | −11.3 |
| Osasuna | Europa League | 19.5% | 30.4% | +10.9 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 75.0% | 85.1% | +10.1 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 4.6% | 14.2% | +9.7 |
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 27.5% | 36.5% | +8.9 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 21.6% | 12.8% | −8.8 |
| Cádiz | Relegation | 73.8% | 81.7% | +8.0 |
