Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 4 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Betis beat Villarreal with a 19.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 23 (before the first match) against those on March 26 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | Champions League | 23.4% | 36.6% | +13.2 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 35.7% | 23.3% | −12.4 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 48.9% | 58.8% | +9.9 |
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 18.1% | 27.5% | +9.4 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 14.5% | 6.1% | −8.4 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 11.4% | 3.7% | −7.6 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 81.9% | 75.0% | −6.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 86.9% | 93.8% | +6.9 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 15.0% | 21.6% | +6.6 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 9.2% | 3.3% | −5.9 |
