Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 2 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Deportivo La Coruña beat Real Madrid with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 26 (before the first match) against those on October 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | Relegation | 56.7% | 45.3% | −11.3 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 14.6% | 25.2% | +10.7 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 17.1% | 26.8% | +9.7 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 38.2% | 28.9% | −9.3 |
| Levante | Relegation | 23.6% | 15.7% | −7.9 |
| Málaga | Champions League | 13.6% | 21.5% | +7.8 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 18.5% | 11.7% | −6.8 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 38.1% | 31.7% | −6.4 |
| Numancia | Relegation | 50.5% | 56.6% | +6.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 39.4% | 33.7% | −5.7 |
