Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Racing Santander beat Real Valladolid with a 20.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 28 (before the first match) against those on October 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 25.7% | 14.0% | −11.7 |
| Real Murcia | Relegation | 46.4% | 35.7% | −10.7 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 65.7% | 75.8% | +10.1 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 66.9% | 76.3% | +9.4 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 32.7% | 23.4% | −9.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Relegation | 16.4% | 25.1% | +8.7 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 9.3% | 16.8% | +7.5 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 46.3% | 53.3% | +7.0 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 20.0% | 13.9% | −6.1 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champion | 23.1% | 28.9% | +5.8 |
