Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Zaragoza beat Atlético Madrid with a 19.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 9 (before the first match) against those on May 16 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 62.8% | 7.7% | −55.1 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 23.9% | 54.7% | +30.9 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 14.6% | 37.6% | +23.0 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 80.1% | 100% | +19.9 |
| Málaga | Europa League | 12.8% | <0.1% | −12.8 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 66.4% | 74.8% | +8.4 |
| Osasuna | Europa League | 5.8% | 0% | −5.8 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 5.7% | 0% | −5.7 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 84.3% | 89.2% | +4.9 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 3.9% | 0% | −3.9 |
