Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Mallorca beat Real Madrid with a 15.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 2 (before the first match) against those on May 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 50.3% | 84.3% | +34.0 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 33.8% | 14.6% | −19.2 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 57.3% | 38.3% | −18.9 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 8.0% | 23.9% | +15.9 |
| Valencia | Champion | 84.9% | 100% | +15.1 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 19.3% | 5.7% | −13.7 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 11.9% | 0% | −11.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 53.6% | 62.8% | +9.2 |
| Osasuna | Europa League | 15.0% | 5.8% | −9.2 |
| Málaga | Europa League | 7.6% | 12.8% | +5.3 |
