Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 8 home wins, 1 draw and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Racing Santander beat Osasuna with a 18.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 25 (before the first match) against those on May 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 29.6% | 53.6% | +24.0 |
| Osasuna | Europa League | 37.3% | 15.0% | −22.4 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 33.2% | 11.9% | −21.2 |
| Valencia | Champion | 64.2% | 84.9% | +20.7 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 16.2% | 33.8% | +17.6 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 17.9% | 0.8% | −17.2 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 37.5% | 50.3% | +12.8 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 14.5% | 2.5% | −12.1 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 54.8% | 66.5% | +11.7 |
| Málaga | Europa League | 16.6% | 7.6% | −9.0 |
