Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Albacete beat Racing Santander with a 22.7% chance, Mallorca beat Real Valladolid with a 24.1% chance, and Barcelona beat Real Madrid with a 22.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 18 (before the first match) against those on April 25 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 11.3% | 37.5% | +26.2 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 50.1% | 33.2% | −16.9 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 31.4% | 14.5% | −16.8 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 21.7% | 6.8% | −15.0 |
| Valencia | Champion | 49.3% | 64.2% | +14.9 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 3.6% | 17.9% | +14.4 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 60.8% | 49.1% | −11.7 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 39.3% | 29.6% | −9.7 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 4.1% | 10.2% | +6.1 |
| Osasuna | Europa League | 43.1% | 37.3% | −5.7 |
