Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Mallorca beat Real Sociedad with a 18.8% chance, Athletic Club beat Celta Vigo with a 24.0% chance, and Real Zaragoza beat Racing Santander with a 19.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 9 (before the first match) against those on November 23 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 17.8% | 30.9% | +13.2 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 30.9% | 21.0% | −9.9 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 59.5% | 66.4% | +6.9 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 38.9% | 32.3% | −6.7 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 28.9% | 35.6% | +6.6 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 78.2% | 71.7% | −6.6 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 18.5% | 12.9% | −5.6 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 4.6% | 9.5% | +4.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 80.8% | 85.6% | +4.8 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 12.9% | 8.1% | −4.8 |
