Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Recreativo Huelva beat Athletic Club with a 13.7% chance and Sevilla beat Real Betis with a 23.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 23 (before the first match) against those on March 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champion | 35.7% | 49.2% | +13.5 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 54.8% | 41.6% | −13.2 |
| Real Sociedad | Champion | 27.1% | 15.7% | −11.4 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 76.9% | 87.6% | +10.7 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 8.7% | 18.9% | +10.2 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 55.2% | 64.7% | +9.5 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 18.3% | 9.5% | −8.8 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Europa League | 19.0% | 10.9% | −8.1 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 13.5% | 6.6% | −6.9 |
| Recreativo Huelva | Relegation | 94.2% | 88.1% | −6.1 |
