Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 2 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Atlético Madrid beat Valencia with a 15.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 2 (before the first match) against those on March 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 15.6% | 30.6% | +15.0 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 64.7% | 52.9% | −11.8 |
| Valencia | Champion | 20.3% | 8.7% | −11.5 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 18.8% | 10.7% | −8.2 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 19.1% | 11.6% | −7.4 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 22.7% | 30.0% | +7.3 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 86.6% | 93.4% | +6.8 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 49.2% | 55.9% | +6.7 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 18.9% | 25.5% | +6.6 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 11.9% | 6.1% | −5.8 |
